In state after state, the final turnout data shows that registered Republicans turned out at a higher rate than registered Democrats. But high-profile Republicans lost because GOP-leaning voters decided to cast ballots for Democrats.
U.S. House Majority Leader
The theory seems to be that Republicans are losing because early voting is giving Democrats a turnout edge. It follows a similar conversation after the midterm elections, when a chorus of conservatives said Republicans needed to start encouraging mail voting.But as more data becomes available on turnout in this year’s election, it is quite clear that turnout was not the main problem facing Republicans.
Georgia is a fine example. While Walker may blame turnout for his poor showing in November and earlier this week, other Republican candidates seemed to have no problem at all. Gov. Brian Kemp won by nearly 8 points over Stacey Abrams; Republican candidates for House won the most votes on the same day.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean Democrats enjoyed a great turnout. All of the Republicans running for statewide office — other than Walker — could have easily survived an electorate that was 2 points less favorable. Georgia is just one example of a broader national turnout gap, including in many of the places where Republicans blame early voting for their woes.
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