Moody's three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes, assuming average turnout.
"If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump's election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren't enthusiastic and don't get out to vote," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics and co-author of the paper along with Dan White, the firm's director of government counseling and public finance research, and Bernard Yaros, assistant director and economist.
In the stock market model, Trump gets a 289-249 edge, while the unemployment model shows a 332-206 advantage. Across all three models, Trump wins 324-214. The results might come as a surprise given Trump's consistently low favorability ratings — 40% in the latest Gallup poll — and as most head-to-head matchups against Democrats show the president losing.
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