The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion (TMX) was meant to unlock Asian markets for Canadian oil, but analysts and traders said those barrels now will probably land on the U.S. West Coast as Asia gobbles up Russian oil that is cheaper due to sanctions from Western countries after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
Asia's heavy crude refining market is roughly nine times the size of California's, but the geopolitical upheaval means Canada will struggle to reduce its reliance on its No. 1 oil customer, the United States.
TMX next year is due to start shipping an extra 590,000 barrels per day of crude early from Alberta to British Columbia's Pacific Coast, where it will be loaded onto tankers for export. Another Canadian trader said regulatory delays and environmental opposition have also made TMX less lucrative for producers than it could have been a few years ago.HEAVY CRUDE DEMAND
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