Market indicates 63% chance of federal funds rate of at least 3.75% by year-end
Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a better-than-not likelihood that the central bank's main policy rate target will get to between 3.75% and 4% by year-end. That likelihood was seen at 63.3% on Wednesday, up from 37% a week ago and 0.8% last month, and would lift the fed funds rate from a current level of between 2.25% and 2.
5%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Also on Wednesday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she supports a Fed benchmark rate above 4% and anticipates no rate cuts next year. Financial markets are adjusting to the likelihood of further rate increases in the U.S. and in Europe, where inflation rose to a record 9.1% year-over-year gain in August.
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