Even before the sanctions went into effect, trade between Russia and China had shown impressive growth
photograph. Even before sanctions were imposed on Russia, it and China were drawing their trade relationship closer. Now that China seems willing to take at least some of what Russia might not be able to sell in Europe and elsewhere, bilateral trade between the two nations should accelerate, though it is doubtful that China will do as thorough a job as Russia wants and needs.
Beijing must be pleased with the situation, painful as it is for its northern neighbor. For one, the Chinese economy can use the Russian energy that once went elsewhere, at least some of it, as well as Russia’s agricultural products and other raw materials. For another, giving Russia a trade outlet thwarts the United States, at least a little, and Beijing always enjoys that sort of thing.
. It has expanded 50% since 2014 and grew 36% in 2021 alone. Bilateral trade between the two countries has reached the equivalent of $146.9 billion. Russia mostly sells China coal, oil, natural gas, and agricultural products. China sells Russia machinery, transportation equipment, mobile phones, cars, and other consumer products. China buys more from Russia than it sells to Russia.
Earlier this year, before the invasion of the Ukraine, the two nations laid out a plan to increase their bilateral trade to the equivalent of $250 billion by 2024, a growth rate of about 20% a year from today’s levels. To serve existing trade and the planned growth, Russia, with $50 billion in Chinese loan financing, built the 2,540-mile East Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline.
There is much that China could do to substitute for Russia’s potential loss of energy sales in Europe. The International Energy Agency reports that Russia produces some 10.5 million barrels of oil a day but consumes only some 3.5 million of those barrels. Accordingly, it needs to export some 7 million barrels of oil a day. Similar relative proportions apply to natural gas.
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