Sovereign bond yields across most major emerging Asian economies will slip in th...
BENGALURU - Sovereign bond yields across most major emerging Asian economies will slip in the months ahead as all central banks across the region are expected to cut interest rates further to nurse their economies back to health, a Reuters poll showed.
That has led to increased demand for low-risk government debt in the region, pushing yield curves to invert in Singapore, Thailand and Hong Kong - meaning short-term yields are higher than long-term rates - which many experts in developed markets consider an indicator of an impending recession. China’s 10-year note yield has declined more than 10 basis points, while in Singapore, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia yields have fallen 30-90 basis points this year so far.The overall lower trend is unlikely to change over the coming year, with yields for benchmark bonds of those countries, barring Thailand, predicted to fall further, according to the Sept. 19-27 poll of more than 40 fixed-income strategists and economists.
That is despite the People’s Bank of China cutting its reserve ratio requirement three times this year and its one-year loan prime rate on Sept. 20. If those predictions are realized, it will increase worries among policymakers where yield curves have already inverted. Most major Asian central banks are predicted to ease further to boost growth, including the Reserve Bank of India which has been one of the most aggressive, cutting interest rates by 110 basis points.
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