Studies show tornadoes are getting more common and more intense, and they’re shifting eastward to a new tornado hot spot.
Tornadoes tore up homes in New Orleans and its suburbs and were reported in communities from Texas to Mississippi and Alabama as severe storms swept across the South in late March 2022. We asked tornado scientist Ernest Agee to explain what causes tornadoes and how the center of U.S. tornado activity has shifted eastward from the traditional Tornado Alley in recent years.
The right combination of heat, moisture and wind can develop rotating thunderstorms capable of spinning off a tornado or a tornado family. Thunderstorms capable of spinning off tornadoes typically develop along and ahead of a frontal boundary — where warm and cold air masses meet — often accompanied above by a strong jet stream.
All of this unfolds under the umbrella of global warming. While it’s still hard for climate models to assess something as small as a tornado, they do project increases in severe weather.What’s interesting is that despite that increase, the per capita death toll from tornadoes has actually gone down in the latter half of the past 100 years. So, as bad as these new outbreaks are, science and technology are saving lives at a faster rate than storms are killing people.
The Southeast seems to be getting a lot more severe storms. Has Tornado Alley shifted?In 2016, my students and I published the first paper that clearly showed, statistically, the emergence of another center of tornado activity in the Southeast, centered around Alabama. We found a notable decrease in both the total number of tornadoes and days with tornadoes in the traditional Tornado Alley in the central plains. At the same time, we found an increase in tornado numbers in what’s been dubbed Dixie Alley, extending from Mississippi through Tennessee and Kentucky into southern Indiana.
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