Marty Ralph has led research on atmospheric rivers with a team of scientists and developed the system that ranks the intensity of them on a scale from 1 to 5.
. Several atmospheric rivers have already passed through. The snowpack is"meltable," at least some of it. I think this will be a high impact event.
Some rivers are predicted to reach flood stage in Northern California, and we should take that very seriously. The flooding risk is real and is reflected in those forecasts and is consistent with an AR 3 or a 4 hitting a very already wet environment. One of the key things we look at is how strong the AR will be and then we consider whether it will stall over an area. Secondly, we look at whether there's another one on its heels. And right now the forecast shows that there is another atmospheric river expected to hit Sunday to Monday. The second one looks like a 2 or 3 at this point.
The scale is really meant to be a situational awareness tool, and when you have a 3 or a 4, that's a serious heads-up to pay attention to your trusted weather provider.I'd say the area most under the gun is between Santa Barbara and the Russian River.I don't have that number handy. It's been a lot. I do know that we had nine atmospheric rivers hitting in the course of that three-week period falling in December and January. Five of those were strong to extreme.
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