The percentage of COVID-19 tests coming back positive is trending up in Colorado, but it’s not clear if that’s a fluke or the start of a new wave of the virus.
State epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy said the positivity rate trended up from about 2.5% on March 17 to about 3.3% on Monday. While that meets the state’s goal of keeping the rate below 5%, it’s something Herlihy said she’ll be “closely watching.”It’s also difficult to know which way cases are trending, because when the numbers are low, they tend to be more volatile, Herlihy said.
Some experts have raised concerns that increasing reliance on home testing kits means that states won’t have accurate data if another surge arrives,. Colorado officials have acknowledged most people don’t report their results from home testing. Cases are rising in parts of western Europe and the East Coast as the BA.2 variant replaces omicron, restrictions are lifted and people’s immunity starts to wane. BA.2 appears to be more contagious than omicron, but there’s no evidence that it causes more severe illness or further erodes protection from vaccines or prior infections, Herlihy said.
While the state’s wastewater data didn’t turn up any signs of BA.2 in the first week of March, that’s probably because relatively few samples have been processed at this point, Herlihy said. A model used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated about 21% of cases in Colorado are caused by BA.2, which is lower than the national average of 35%.
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