Rumour, connections (real or imagined) and tips have always played a big role in determining what stocks retail speculators buy
new on Wall Street. Speculation is as old as the hills. So says the protagonist of “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator”, published in 1923. Quite so—but you can count on some new variations. Take the case of Nikola Corporation, which makes trucks powered by green energy. On June 8th its stock price doubled. It was then worth more than Ford. Yet it has sold no vehicles. “Sympathetic magic”, explains a seasoned investor.
Some of this recalls the era of Jesse Livermore, whose exploits are fictionalised in “Reminiscences”, with its bucket shops, tipsters and crazy buying of. . There are strong parallels with the day traders and chat-room herds of America’s dotcom mania in the late 1990s. But you don’t have to go back even that far. A lot of the archetypes are found more recently in China.
Rumour, connections and tips have always played a big role in determining what stocks retail speculators buy. In Livermore’s day, every bucket-shop punter kept his ear open for a tip to get aboard Burlington or Northern Pacific. What has changed is the speed at which tips spread and so how synchronised retail buying has become. The result is a rapid succession of fads: first tech darlings; then bombed-out stocks; then something else.
Put aside the harrumphing for a moment. There is something to cheer in all this. Academics have puzzled over why more people do not participate in the stockmarket. The literature suggests peers have an influence. A paper in 2002 by Esther Duflo and Emmanuel Saez, for instance, finds that the pension choices of university librarians were swayed by their colleagues. That does not mean there is nothing to worry about.
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