Even if the Omicron variant proves manageable, 2022 will probably be economically trying
THE NEWS, as the second anniversary of the pandemic nears, could be better. The emergence of a covid-19 variant, labelled Omicron, has sparked a wave of selling on financial markets, seemingly on concern that a new highly transmissible strain of the virus could set back economic recoveries worldwide.
The year ahead will not be the first time economies have been forced to navigate the treacherous waters between the two dangers. In the mid-2010s vulnerable emerging markets were squeezed by a rising dollar, as the Federal Reserve withdrew the monetary support provided during the global financial crisis, while a badly managed round of financial-market liberalisation and credit tightening triggered a slump in China. Growth across emerging markets, excluding China, sagged from 5.
China’s importance for the global economy has only increased since the 2010s. And the world remains vulnerable to shocks. Debt loads soared during the pandemic; the continued spread of covid-19 is likely to place further demands on governments. Analysis of past episodes of Fed tightening suggests that an increase in interest rates prompted by strong American demand is modestly beneficial to emerging economies on a sound macroeconomic footing.
Very high debt loads in some rich countries push them up the list. Markets typically extend the rich world more breathing room, but if global financial conditions tighten substantially, then European leaders may need to do more to persuade punters that Greece will not be allowed to fall into serious trouble. Among big emerging economies, Brazil looks most vulnerable.
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