Columnist MktwHulbert analyzed the distribution of the 100 biggest daily percentage S&P 500 gains since 1928. Here’s what he found.
Caution: The stock market’s explosive rise in the past two days doesn’t necessarily mean the bear market is over.It’s because daily spikes happen more frequently during bear than bull markets. So if you had to bet on the market’s major trend while knowing nothing more than the fact of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s DJIA, +2.80% 700-plus-point increases in each of Monday and Tuesday’s trading sessions, your bet would have to be that the trend remains down.
But if they did occur randomly, you’d expect that, statistically, only 30 of those 100 increases would have taken place during bear markets. ‘Perfect examples’ This bear-market concentration of big daily gains is even more pronounced for the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +3.34%, according to a report from Cornell Capital.
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