100-year floods are turning into …. all-the-time floods.
its design standards for new development—a culvert under a road, for example, now must be built for the 100-year event, instead of the 25-year event. But many smaller jurisdictions do not have the expertise, money, or political will to go beyond what the federal government is recommending.“I don’t see how you can look at the information we have available now and not be asking those questions,” said Bill Haneberg, the state geologist of Kentucky.
Even before carbon dioxide had soared above 400 parts per million in the atmosphere, there were issues with the 100-year-flood standard. How do you project a once-in-a-century calamity from a few decades of data? Haneberg made an analogy to the Super Bowl coin toss: Over the history of the event, it’s 26 heads and 29 tails. But there was one five-year stretch of heads, and there have been three four-year stretches of tails.
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