⚠️Wall Street Week Ahead: *Volatility Ahead Of Central Banks, Trend Crossroads 👉 $DIA $SPY $QQQ $IWM $VIX
I have been bearish throughout this entire rally since the mid-June bottom. I wrote a few weekly posts in which I said that I don't know whether stocks will necessarily fall this week, but that I expected them to. When they finally did top out Aug. 16, having lost nearly 10% since then, some readers commented that, of course, at some point markets will fall. They said I was a"permabear," irrationally pessimistic.
But assets don't move in straight lines. When I make a call, I am not saying that the asset will go in my direction from that moment. I clarify that the asset may move the other way first. So, how to know if my call is successful or not? There must be a gauge. Those are peaks and troughs.Here you can see the short-term uptrend versus the long-term downtrend. My call is intact if the short term doesn't reverse the long term with higher peaks and troughs.
The price fell about 700 points, or 14.6%, between the Jan. 4 record peak and the Feb 23 low. Then, it fell another 1,000 points or 21.6% between the March 28 peak and the June 17 low. That's the kind of decline I'm looking for. The price has so far dropped 419 points, or 9.7%, from its Aug. 16 high. If it at least registers a new low, it will fall at least 688 points or almost 16%. On Aug. 25, I forecast that the S&P 500 would fall toward 3,000.
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