This week 191 countries gather in New York to review the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a cornerstone of global security
of hostility between America and Russia, an island of co-operation endures: the rival powers routinely share information about their long-range nuclear weapons, from the movement of warheads in and out of maintenance to telemetry from ballistic-missile launches. This is both striking and reassuring in the sixth month of war in Ukraine, as Russia periodically threatens to use nuclear weapons and America warns of “severe consequences” if it does.
Iran is on the nuclear threshold now that negotiations to revive a deal from 2015 restricting its atomic programme have all but failed. North Korea has already gone nuclear. It has resumed testing intercontinental ballistic missiles and may soon conduct another underground nuclear test. Britain is expanding its arsenal. France is reported to have raised its deterrent posture by sending out to sea three submarines armed with nuclear-armed missiles, rather than the usual one.
The world’s nuclear stockpile is thus set to expand again, having shrunk from about 70,300 warheads in 1986 to some 12,700 this year, and in many cases is being modernised. Given that America and Russia account for nine-tenths of these, many experts worry that all restraint will be abandoned once Newexpires in February 2026. America halted talks on a follow-on deal when Russia invaded Ukraine, and there is no sign that they will resume soon, or ever.
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