Oil price forecasts are becoming more uncertain due to unexpected factors like strong demand and U.S. shale well productivity.
Oil prices have become very difficult to predict. This is the latest outtake from CERAWeek where analysts discussed how so many of them managed to get 2023 prices so very wrong. The future price of oil has never been easy to forecast, to be fair, but the 2023 trends were so different from forecasts that we may have entered a whole new era of forecast uncertainty in oil. Or perhaps there’s too much focus on the wrong factors to make forecasts.
On the other hand, last year’s oil market was even more fixated on China than usual. But it was fixated on perhaps the wrong aspect of the market economic growth. Just like with the United States, Chinese oil demand showed stronger resilience and growth than expected because most expectations made a direct link between economic growth prospects and oil demand trends. What’s even more puzzling is the fact that China’s economy, unlike the U.S. one, was never on the verge of a recession last year.
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