The financial system is much less a new financing system than it is in reality a refinancing system, says the godfather of liquidity.
As the meat of earnings season begins, it’s worth noting what investors have learned so far. The short version is, apart from a few isolated companies , not a whole lot: the projected rise in S&P 500 earnings per share this year stands at 8.9%, compared with 8.1% at end of March, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
But even as expectations toward earnings have improved, the market has struggled, with the S&P 500 SPX down 6% this month so far. So what’s going on? Howell says a normal tightening cycle would lead the S&P 500 down by around 15%, if a recession is thrown on top that’s a 30% drop, and if there’s a banking crisis on top of that, there’s a 50% slide. “I don’t think we’re going to get the third, I think we’re getting more than the first, so I’m plumbing for the middle which is about a 30% correction from the peak to the low,” he said.
That declining liquidity has already been seen with the collapse in the Japanese yen USDJPY , soaring Treasury bond yields, and spiking commodity prices. The increased volatility makes it more difficult for people to borrow against that collateral as lenders will require more margin. Howell says his index of liquidity is on the verge of entering the “turbulence investment zone”
China’s capital of Beijing appears to be moving toward the strict lockdowns seen in the financial hub of Shanghai in response to a new COVID-19 outbreak.
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