“Powerful rallies are not a reliable signal of whether a new bull market has begun,” columnist Mark Hulbert writes after counting the average number of rallies that have occurred from new bear market lows since 1900.
Don’t jump into stocks every time the market mounts a sizeable rally during a bear market. All too often those rallies turn out to be nothing more than bear-market traps, luring gullible bulls back into equities before the bear market resumes in earnest.
Ten percent rallies were not as common, not surprisingly, but not rare. The average bear market since 1900 experienced between one and two rallies in which the Dow rose by more than 10% before succumbing to the ongoing bear market. By that bear market’s final low in March 2009, many beleaguered investors had sworn off of equities altogether, claiming they’d never trust the stock market again.
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