Skyscraper Indicator check-in... In San Francisco, Salesforce has built the tallest skyscraper west of the Mississippi. In New York, 19 'supertall' skyscrapers are in the works (currently there are only 8).
Historically, bull markets in stocks and real estate bubbles, especially in commercial property, go hand in hand. The same irrational exuberance that persuades mediocre stock investors that everything they touch turns to gold also infects developers who leverage themselves to the hilt with cheap money near the peak of a cycle.In the past, the completion of record-high skyscrapers has been the proverbial bell that rings at the top of the market.
It was soon eclipsed by the Chrysler Building, the Art Deco wonder that opened in 1928, followed by 40 Wall Street. The Empire State Building, which began construction before the 1929 stock market crash, finally opened in 1931 during the Great Depression.“New York built over 25 tall buildings during each of the five years after 1926,” writes Harvard University economist Edward L. Glaeser in a paper on the subject.
Burj Khalifa in Dubai opened at the tail end of the financial crisis. The Mount Everest of skyscrapers, it has 163 stories and rises over 2,700 feet above the ground. Just months before its early 2010 opening, the ruler of Abu Dhabi bailed out financially strapped Dubai and got his name on the building.
One of these supertall buildings is part of the massive $25 billion Hudson Yards complex on Manhattan’s West Side — maybe just in time for the next recession.
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