The Russia Ukraine War Could Have Dire Impacts On Global Supply Chains:
is transforming the economics of the shale industry once more. With oil over a $100 a barrel again, shale production becomes much more attractive. Shale companies have an ability to quickly ramp up or scale back production. Even before the invasion, ExxonMobil had announced plans to increase their production by 25% in the coming year. Chevron announced plans to increase their production by 10%.
However, about 10% of the total supply of liquid natural gas flows though Ukraine to the European Union. These pipelines could be damaged in the fighting, or Ukraine could decide to cut them. But theis that Russia, which has already reduced its gas exports to Europe, might decide to restrict exports further in response to Western sanctions.
“More than 2,100 U.S.-based firms and 1,200 European firms have at least one direct supplier in Russia. More than 450 firms in the U.S. and 200 in Europe have tier-1 suppliers in Ukraine. Software and IT services account for 13% of supplier relationships between U.S. and Russian/Ukrainian companies. Consumer services represent another 7%. About 6% account for trading and distribution services and 4% for industrial machinery.
Food inflation is a risk from a supply chain disruption. “Ukraine is on track to being the world’s third-largest exporter of corn, and Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter. Ukraine is also a top exporter of barley and rye.”
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