Central bank firepower helped stock market bulls finish the first half of 2020 on a high. Now the rally hinges on follow-through in the third-quarter from economic data, company earnings and the coronavirus newsflow.
FILE PHOTO: The Fearless Girl statue is seen outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, New York, U.S., June 11, 2020. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid /File Photo
Latest numbers from jobs to manufacturing have kept momentum going. But what comes next is important - for investors as well as possibly for U.S. President Donald Trump’s re-election prospects in November. Markets risk being sideswiped by bad news, Silbertson said, adding: “If you believe markets are forward-looking, perhaps they are overly optimistic.”
Contrary to common belief, surging stocks and a shrinking economy can go together - past meltdowns attest markets can trough up to six months before crises end. But they do need to see data improving at a steady clip. Markets see 2021 as when “we’ll start to see essential improvements in the economy and from companies. The more that’s pushed out, the more difficult it is for the market,” Krosby said.
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