As sparring between China and America grows nastier, officials in Washington say the Philippines has become as prominent in their security debates as any Asian country save China itself
ways in which great power competition is reordering Asian geopolitics, a new Western focus on the Philippines stands out. The archipelago country of 115m people is not rich, spends little on defence and was until last year led by an anti-American populist. Yet Rodrigo Duterte’s successor, President Ferdinand “BongBong” Marcos, has returned the Philippines to its usual pro-Western posture.
That makes them the closest possible launch-pad to the disputed island for American and allied forces, apart from one or two far-flung Japanese island bases, which would be harder to defend and supply. “Newlocations will allow our forces to respond rapidly to shared challenges in the Philippines as well as across the Indo-Pacific region,” says a Pentagon official.
Mr Trump and Mr Duterte, who viewed China as a more reliable and lucrative partner, jeopardised that progress. In 2020 Mr Duterte threatened to end the two countries’ Visiting Forces Agreement, which permits American troops in the Philippines. Mr Trump welcomed this as an opportunity to “save a lot of money”.
The West has welcomed it broadly. Security co-operation between Japan and the Philippines has reached “a turning point,” says Kiba Saya of Kobe City University of Foreign Studies. Beyond last year’s exercises, Japan has supplied a dozen patrol vessels to the Filipino coast guard. During a visit to Tokyo by Mr Marcos this month the two countries signed a deal making it easier for Japanese forces to deploy to the Philippines on humanitarian missions.
Yet such baubles are nothing to the economic contribution of China, the Philippines’ biggest trade partner. And Mr Marcos hopes to retain it. The president visited Beijing in January and was rewarded with $23bn in investment promises, including in sectors, such as energy, on which the Philippines until recently placed foreign-ownership restrictions.
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