No one could have expected the complete dysfunction of Russian military forces. Their widespread logistics failures have been almost comical, writes PhilipReichert. 'Still, it's clear that the odds against Ukraine were exaggerated from the start.'
The Russian Goliath, one of the world’s largest militaries and a leading exporter of arms and military technology, is being thwarted by the smaller and weaker Ukrainian military. Despite the narrative, however, Ukraine was never as outmatched as portrayed.In the lead-up to the invasion, the graphics shown on TV news were clear: the Russian army numbered nearly one million active soldiers, with a couple million more reservists.
Given this advantage, the Western mood was grim. The expectation was a swift decapitation of the Ukrainian state. The discussion centered on whether the United States should arm the sure-to-be subjugated Ukrainian people so they could better conduct an insurgent campaign against Russian occupation. Traditional military thinking suggests that attackers need 3-to-1 odds to win a battle. The Russians did not have 3-to-1 odds, opting instead for something closer to even odds. Yet, even this statistic is misleading. When Ukraine's reserve forces are counted, the invaded nation holds a numerical advantage. Equally important, Ukraine’s armed forces are not a ragtag group, as they have been trained by NATO advisers.
Granted, no one could have expected the complete dysfunction of Russian military forces. Coordinated command and control have been pathetic, and Russian airpower has performed questionably at best. Russia's widespread logistics failures have been almost comical.Philip Reichert is a former U.S. Army intelligence analyst and contractor for the U.S. Space Force.
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