Arctic cyclones to intensify as climate warms, NASA study predicts NASAGoddard NatureComms
). Consequently, future track changes may bring increased and prolonged cyclone wind speeds, surface turbulent fluxes, air temperatures, and precipitation to areas that were previously not affected in the current or historical climates .
The results demonstrate that even though recent climate change is altering the Arctic climate, cyclone characteristics do not yet exhibit an appreciable response in spring. While temperatures have increased, the absolute values remain below freezing in the current climate, and while sea ice characteristics have changed, large changes in concentration are confined to the marginal seas during spring.
This study highlights that cyclones are highly sensitive to sea ice and atmospheric conditions in the Arctic, and changes in cyclone characteristics are most pronounced over areas with the greatest change in sea ice concentration. Therefore, current efforts to limit climate change and sea ice loss are paramount for mitigating the impacts of extreme polar weather in regions of significant ice loss, such as the Barents, Bering, and Chukchi seas.
While this study has examined the cyclone response to recent and future climate change in spring , similar future changes in cyclone characteristics may occur in other seasons based on our findings of the relationship between sea-ice loss and cyclone intensification. Sea ice concentration is predicted to decrease in all seasons across the Arctic with concurrent increases in temperature and moisture availability in a warming climate.
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