If Russia were to invade Ukraine—a scenario that President Biden has admitted is likely—the resulting violence would represent, as Biden put it, “the most consequential thing that’s happened in the world, in terms of war and peace, since World War Two.”
On January 21st, after meeting in Geneva with the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued a rather understated assessment of the high-stakes impasse between Russia and the United States, with Russia threatening the prospect of. “I think the charitable interpretation would be that sometimes we and Russia have different interpretations of history,” Blinken said.
The many arguments, myths, and crises that have arisen from this one utterance led Mary Elise Sarotte, a historian and professor at Johns Hopkins University, to borrow it for the title of the book she published last November, “.” Sarotte has the receipts, as it were: her authoritative tale draws on thousands of memos, letters, briefs, and other once secret documents—including many that have never been published before—which both fill in and complicate settled narratives on both sides.
Sarotte’s interpretation of the key phrase begins with the context of the moment in which it was said. In early 1990, with the Berlin Wall having fallen just months before, German unification was the central policy question in Europe. But on this matter the Soviet Union had an automatic say: as one of the officially recognized victors in the Second World War, the U.S.S.R. retained a political veto over Germany’s future, not to mention three hundred and eighty thousand troops in East Germany.
In her book, Sarotte explains that this one sentence would take on a life of its own in the years to come: “Various leaders in Moscow would point to this exchange as an agreement barring NATO from expanding beyond its eastern Cold War border. Baker and his aides and supporters, in contrast, would point to the hypothetical phrasing and lack of any written agreement afterward as a sign that the secretary had only been test-driving one potential option of many.
But the truth was that, by then, Russia’s opinion didn’t matter all that much. The West needed Moscow’s buy-in on German reunification in 1990, but there was no formal or practical reason that it needed approval on the question of extendingmembership to other countries. Washington “must be very careful not to be seen as running after the Russians, offering them concessions,” Clinton’s Secretary of State at the time, Warren Christopher, said.
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