Why is the country divided so evenly? What might change that?
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskThe torment of Mr McCarthy is easy to explain. But it points to a mystery, one this column will outline but—with apologies—not solve: why is it that each party’s grip on power, once attained, has become so fragile? Everyone knows America is polarised. Yet that does not explain why it is also so evenly divided.
There are few swing states, swing districts or swing voters left, yet the government swings constantly because the balance is so fine. “There’s nothing like our current era as you look back throughhistory,” says Frances Lee of Princeton University, who studies Congress. “I’m mystified fundamentally by it, to be honest.
Democrats say the game is stacked against them. No Republican has won the popular vote for president since 2004, they note, and Democratic senators, who tend to represent more populous states, can command millions more votes in aggregate. But the rules have also benefited Democrats: in 2022 Republicans did better nationally than their seat tally suggests because they “wasted” votes in safe districts.
It is hard to overstate how the Reagan revolution transformed politics. Here is an index: the then House Republican leader, John Rhodes, stepped down after the 1980 election in shock that his party had funded a challenger to the Democratic speaker. “There’s no way I’d be against Tip O’Neill,” he said. “I love him.” Those are not words a Democratic leader will say of Mr McCarthy.
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