In two-thirds of American states, infections were rising when governors started to ease lockdowns
covid-19 cases risen so fast? The answer may seem blindingly obvious. But it is not. And the implications of the real answer are even more worrying than those of the obvious one.
This is not wrong, but nor is it the whole story, because the pattern of people’s activity does not match the pattern of infection. As the chart shows, new infections fell gradually and gently from 100 cases per million people in mid-April to about 60 in mid-June. America at this point seemed to be following Europe and East Asia down the other side of the mountain of infections. But in mid-June, something extraordinary happened. Infections exploded, increasing fourfold in the next four weeks.
The explanation for the pattern of American infections lies in something of central importance to the spread of a virus: geometric progression, such as 1, 2, 4, 8, 16. If one person infects two, two infect four and so on. Unless the rate of infection is driven down by reducing contacts, any geometric increase quickly balloons: 256, 512, 1,024.
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