The week that was US equity markets sold off into the end of the week as rising inflation prospects and slightly weaker activity data weighed on sentiment.
Feb CPI data continued to show strength in shelter costs combined with now resurgent energy prices. Energy markets have convincingly broken higher on the back of tight inventories, Opec resolve and ongoing geo-political tensions. These tensions are also keeping shipping costs elevated which are visibly now feeding into rising import costs for US producers as evidenced by recent data on PPI.
This reality has started to dawn on markets and will become apparent in the Fed meeting this week as they begin to push back on rate cut expectations. There is still a chance however that the Fed stops QT, citing technical factors. The combination of pushing back on rate cuts and stopping Bond sales would further invert the US treasury yield curve potentially sending a negative signal to equity markets that tend to see inverted curves as a recession signal.
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