Optimists argue that Democrats could still accomplish much before November 2022—even in the face of poor electoral prospects WorldAhead
reality that 2022 is likely to be the last serviceable year of the Biden administration. Gridlock is endemic to the American system. It originates in a constitutional design premised on consensus, which seems increasingly unattainable in an era of hyperpolarisation, an effective supermajority requirement in the Senate and razor-thin majorities.
Election losses augur a lost final two years of Mr Biden’s term, at least legislatively speaking. Democrats have five seats to spare in the House of Representatives; they have zero seats to spare in the Senate. Only twice since 1938 has an incumbent president managed to see his party’s position in the House expand—and on both occasions the fortunate president also commanded an approval rating above 60%. Unfortunately for Mr Biden, his rating is a comparatively measly 44%.
Optimists argue that Democrats could still accomplish much before November 2022—even in the face of poor electoral prospects. Perhaps. But if Mr Biden’s agenda-setting legislation is still being argued over, that will sap significant lawmaking energy. The prospect of looming elections will drain the rest. The problem with feeble majorities is that almost any intramural dissent is sufficient to scupper any proposal.
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