As the United States pulls away from China, it needs its neighbours more than ever
in North America tends to inspire extreme views. The most famous critic in recent years, Donald Trump, referred to the continent’s original free-trade pact as “the worst trade deal maybe ever”. By contrast, evangelists for cross-border linkages say that they are making North America the world’s most dynamic region.
In 2022 the United States’ trade with its neighbours to the north and south far outstripped its trade with China. On March 15th American regulators approved the first big railway merger in two decades, which will link all three countries. And on March 23rd Mr Biden is due to meet Justin Trudeau, his Canadian counterpart, during his first visit to Canada since he came to office in 2021.
Last year Mexico’s economy minister said some 400 companies were interested in moving production from Asia to Mexico. Andrés Benavides of Daikin, a Japanese air-conditioning manufacturer, says the company is moving some of its production for the American market from Thailand to Mexico. It plans to hire 2,000 people in Mexico over the next 18 months. The company has also brought lines of manufacturing down from the United States. A big draw is the availability of labour.
But Alberto de la Fuente, who heads the Council of Global Companies in Mexico, a body that represents big international companies, warns that the wave of investment is still more aspirational than real at this point. Foreign direct investment rose to $35.3bn in 2022, the highest figure since 2015, but local analysts say this can be accounted for by a couple of big investments.
Canada does not have the same luxury. Whether looking at wages, land costs or environmental regulations, Canada is similar enough to the United States that the latter’s introduction of major subsidies fors, battery production, clean energy and more has the potential to alter the competitive balance between the two countries.
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