Consumer habits across the rich world have shifted decisively and perhaps permanently due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Spending on services remains below pre-pandemic levels, while demand for goods has increased. Rich-world consumers are spending around $600bn a year less on services than expected in 2019. Leisure activities outside the home have become less popular, with money being redirected to goods.
In some ways covid-19 was a blip. After soaring in 2020, unemployment across the rich world quickly dropped to pre-pandemic lows. Countries re-attained their pre-covid gdp in short order. And yet, more than two years after lockdowns were lifted, at least one change is enduring: consumer habits across the rich world have shifted decisively, and perhaps permanently. Welcome to the age of the hermit. Before covid, the share of consumer spending devoted to services was rising steadily.
And pandemic disruption means many new hotels and restaurants that would have opened in 2020 and 2021 never did. The number of hotels in Britain, at around 10,000, has not grown since 2019. Firms are noticing the $600bn shift. In a recent earnings call an executive at Darden Restaurants, which runs one of America’s finest restaurant chains, Olive Garden, noted that, relative to pre-covid times, “we’re probably in that 80% range in terms of traffic”.
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