Taylor: Forget what you’ve been hearing. For inflation and employment, these are the good times
The latest unemployment rate was 3.6 percent. Except for a few months before COVID, unemployment has never been this low.The financial infotainment-industrial complex loves to tell us bad, shocking, surprising and emotionally arousing news.
The financial infotainment-industrial complex does not want to discuss the boring things — or the good things. But I do, damn it. If inflation hadn’t taken off in 2021, all economic laws of money supply theory would be out the window. Fortunately, the appearance of regular consumer inflation means that the fringe economic ideas of Modern Monetary Theory can be relegated to the footnotes of history.Until this year, we only saw inflation in indirect forms.
The Phillips curve is a bit dated, and debate continues about causality, magnitude of effects, secondary confounding factors, shape of the curve, etc., but the basic relationship between employment and inflation is considered real. Federal Reserve economists explicitly adopt this linkage and try for a Goldilocks level of moderate inflation and strong employment, understanding that helping one side may unintentionally hurt the other.
Good news like this doesn’t make for exciting headlines, but that doesn’t make it any less true. Traditional models would also suggest that when employment is this good we should expect higher than normal inflation.
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