Markets have started pricing in Fed rate cuts of 75 basis points by the year's end as SVB's collapse creates panic about other banks
Silicon Valley Bank's demise has put pressure on the Federal Reserve to rethink its economic tightening, and markets are pricing in a sharp pivot to rate cuts this year. , which looks at 30-day fed fund futures contracts to gauge what investors believe is the possible trajectory of rates, still shows expectations for more one increase next week.
But after that, markets see a U-turn to the tune of 75 basis points of reductions by December from the March peak, or a net decline of 50 basis points from current levels. Markets then pushed back projections for eventual rate cuts, with many forecasters putting the first one sometime in 2024. But by June, the sentiment shifts, with the probability of a quarter-point cut at 43%, topping the 41% odds rates will hold steady.
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