“The United States is really going to be a climate leader globally if we can get this bill over the finish line.”
on its website. The topline result: a 31% to 44% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 2005. Compared with current policies, that’s an additional 13% to 17% drop. Variables such as the price of natural gas account for much of the uncertainty: If gas prices drop, utilities might favor gas over renewable power, slowing the decline in carbon emissions.
Both analyses find the two most important factors driving down emissions are clean electricity tax credits—which the bill provides for at least a decade—and expanded tax credits for both new and used electric vehicles. The subsidies will help utilities install more capacity from wind farms and solar panels and help keep nuclear power plants financially viable as they face competition from cheap natural gas.
The bill also includes some climate-unfriendly provisions, apparently added at Manchin’s request. It requires the federal government to offer several lease sales of offshore oil and gas resources, with more on the table if public lands are opened to renewable energy efforts like wind farms. The leases could boost oil and gas production from federal lands by an extra 50 million tons per year in 2030, according to Energy Innovation.
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