Morgan Stanley's chief stock strategist warns that the 2023 rally is a 'bull trap' and pain is coming for investors in March
That downside could start as soon as March, the latest note said, as the S&P 500 is hovering around the critical level of 4,000, where it has been since late January.
If interest rates and the value of the US dollar start to ease, stocks could stage a"one last stand" that delays the eventual sell-off, Morgan Stanley said. "Conversely, if rates and the US Dollar continue higher we think these key support levels for stocks will quickly give way as the bear resumes more forcefully. Bottom line, the US Dollar and rates could determine the short term path of stock prices while earnings will ultimately tell us if this is a new bull market or bull trap," strategists warned.
But bond yields and the dollar's value are influenced by the fed funds rate, and officials have signaled more rate hikes are coming in the following months. Markets are expecting a 25-basis-point hike at the central bank's next meeting, though bearish commentators say a 50-basis-point hike isn't off the table.
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