Stock investors fret about a 2023 recession: How severe and how long will it be?
With the U.S. stock market on track for its biggest annual decline in over a decade, fears that efforts by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks to bring down a surge in inflation will spark a major economic slowdown have moved front and center as the calendar flips to 2023.A shallow and brief recession Many analysts think the economy has enough inertia to grow slowly at least through the first half of 2023.
However, job growth is expected to slow in 2023 as higher interest rates crimp investment and as more industries fully recover their prepandemic head count, but according to Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, this kind of “substantial cooling” in labor market conditions will be far from recessionary.
He attributed the economic resilience to the “healthy balance sheets” of individuals and households, which accumulated “abundance of savings” during the pandemic. The good news is that a prolonged period of economic swampiness should snuff out inflation and force the Federal Reserve to reverse a significant part of their 2022 monetary tightening, wrote Kelly in a November note.
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