Stocks have met none of the 8 conditions that confirmed every new bull market in the post-war era — and one investment chief warns a relapse into a bear market is coming
But these developments — as bullish as they appear— have not completely pushed aside the question of whether this is a rally within a prolonged bear market.
Doug Ramsey, the chief investment officer of the Leuthold Group, is one of the experts who continues to lean into that question even as stocks fly higher. By drawing on the history of S&P 500 recoveries in the era since World War II, he has concluded that another leg lower is not outside the realm of possibility. MORGAN STANLEY: The market's hottest stocks are in danger of being disrupted to a degree not seen since the Great Recession.
In a recent note, he listed at least eight reasons for this view. They are all derived from the conditions that preceded new bull markets in the post-war era and have not been met this time. The checklist is as follows: P/E ratio on a normalized basis — adjusted for seasonal or one-time fluctuations — also did not fall below 15. These two taken together make the recent episode the most expensive bear-market low in history, Ramsey noted. , which compares the pace of S&P 500 gains to 11 and 14 months prior, did not fall below zero at the market's trough. A lower value for this indicator would have indicated that investor sentiment was even more bearish.did not confirm that momentum was positive.
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