JPMORGAN: The riskiest areas of the market have bottomed out for this recession — and now is the time for traders to start buying again
Photo taken on March 24, 2020 shows the New York Stock Exchange and George Washington statue on the Wall Street in New York, the United States.Criteria including massive fiscal stimulus, recession-level pricing, and a reversal in asset allocation have all been met, the bank said, justifying "adding risk selectively" over the coming weeks.
Volatility will remain higher-than-average in the near term, but "enough has changed fundamentally and technically to justify adding risk selectively," the team led by John Normand wrote in a note to clients. Despite heightened risks, investors should begin re-entering oversold markets to best prepare for price recoveries, JPMorgan said. Past recessions show valuations bottoming before the downturn ends. Markets where central banks are buying assets directly, such as Treasuries or corporate credit, are particularly appealing, the firm added.
"The missing criteria is a convincing deceleration in COVID daily infection rates, which have slowed to roughly 25% in the US and 17% in Europe," the strategists wrote. "But rates remain too high to say with confidence that social distancing and lockdown can be fully lifted in May such that activity can begin normalizing in early summer."
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