For 2024, South Carolina political leaders say they expect a truly unpredictable environment, with the state thrust onto center stage.
, is speaking to the Charleston County GOP before he embarks on a listening tour that will take him to Iowa, the first state on the 2024 calendar.
The entrances of prominent South Carolina politicians could play a major role not only in the 2024 race but also specifically in their home state, which has weighed heavily on presidential contests over the past 40 years. Since 1980, the winner of the South Carolina GOP primary has gone on to win the party’s nomination in every cycle it has been held except for 2012, when former House Speaker Newt Gingrich bested eventual GOP nominee Mitt Romney.
“Do they steal from each other? And then, does Trump benefit from that?” asked Mick Mulvaney, a former member of Congress from South Carolina who was Trump’s acting White House chief of staff. “At the micro level, you’ve got to wonder, does Tim Scott take away from Nikki Haley’s support or from Donald Trump’s? And then the same goes for Nikki Haley, as well."
But Mulvaney said the dynamics of the primary that is shaping up might not lead to such a scenario's being a final blow for either a Haley or Scott campaign. “Does it look bad to finish third in your home state? Probably. But maybe it’s different,” he said. “Typically, if you came in third in your home state, it’s the kiss of death. But this time around, I think folks recognize that it’s just unusual in that you’ve got a former president and two of the most popular politicians in the state.”
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