A stream of 300,000 monthly job gains is normally a sign of a hot labor market and potentially higher inflation. But slower wage gains might be an escape...
A stream of 300,000 monthly gains in new jobs is normally a sign of a hot labor market and perhaps higher inflation. Yet Wall Street is finding comfort in evidence of slowing wage growth as a potential escape valve for the economy.
The U.S. added a larger-than-expected 311,000 new jobs in February, the government reported Friday. That puts the average increase over the last six months at 336,000. The Fed is worried a historically tight labor market will keep upward pressure on wages and make it harder to get high inflation under control. Higher interest rates reduce inflation by weakening the economy — and also raise the risks of recession.
Now investors and economists think a smaller rate hike is back on the table after the softest increase in wages in a year. Hourly pay rose a scant 0.2% in February. “Make no mistake,” said chief economist Gregory Daco of EY Parthenon, “wage growth momentum is easing.” These hints at a cooler labor market encouraged investors. Stocks prices DJIA SPX stabilized Friday and bond yields TMUBMUSD10Y fell.
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