Singapore: Positive surprise from Industrial Production – UOB – by pabspiovano Singapore IndustrialProduction Banks Manufacturing
Senior Economist at UOB Group Alvin Liew reviews the latest industrial production figures in Singapore.Singapore’s Jun industrial production contracted by less than forecast while May’s contraction was also revised smaller, both factors likely to affirm the economy avoided a technical recession in 1H. IP contracted by -4.9% y/y in Jun, better than Bloomberg’s median forecast of -6.0% y/y and our more bearish forecast of -13.7% y/y. The May IP contraction was also revised to a smaller 10.5% y/y .
IP Outlook – While we are heartened by the surprise rebound in semiconductors output in Jun, it may be too soon to call for a turnaround in the electronics downcycle. The slower growth in the transport engineering components of aerospace and marine & offshore, also add caution to the manufacturing outlook. With IP contracting by -6.3% YTD, we maintain our forecast for Singapore 2023 manufacturing to contract by -5.4%, which implies a tepid recovery profile in 2H.
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