The Arctic heatwave has also encouraged widespread wildfires across the region
THIS HAS been a sweltering year in the Siberian Arctic. Between January and June, temperatures across the region were more than 5°C warmer than the recent average . In some spots they were more than 10°C above average. On June 20th in the town of Verkhoyansk in north-eastern Siberia thermometers read 38°C—the highest ever recorded north of the Arctic circle, according to Russia’s meteorological service.
The quantification method involves repeated simulations of the climate with and without historical emissions; researchers then estimate how the odds of a specific extreme-weather event vary in each scenario. In the past, such studies have shown that specific events were made somewhat more likely by greenhouse-gas emissions, or not at all.
The increased likelihood is several orders of magnitude greater than such studies normally find. Friederike Otto, a climatologist at Oxford University who leads the WWA initiative, can think of just one other study that came to a similar conclusion. In that case, attribution modelling found that extremely hot days recorded in Japan in 2018 had been essentially impossible without climate change.
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