So much about this year's Oscars race is still unknowable. But, as always, that won’t stop us from making early, possibly foolish predictions. kn8's OscarFutures column returns:
Clockwise from top: The Tragedy of [Redacted], Dune, Belfast, House of Gucci, and The Power of the Dog. Photo-Illustration: Vulture; A24, Focus Features, Netflix, Universal Pictures, Warner Bros. Pictures What will the Oscars race look like this year? There are two answers to that question.
The hope is that this was a one-year blip, that in 2021 a movie-hungry nation would come roaring back into theaters, and the Oscars will be restored to their former glory, Louis XVIII–style. This has proven partially true: Audiences have indeed returned to the cinema, provided those cinemas are showing movies in the Fast and Furious franchise or the MCU.
After the fall festivals, two films have stood out from the pack. Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast could be described as “Roma meets Derry Girls,” with all the slightly jarring tonal shifts that implies. But it’s also a bona fide crowd-pleaser, full of endearing performances, nostalgic charm, and good craic. It was a deserving winner of the TIFF Audience Award, an honor that almost always presages a Best Picture nom.
Best Director Jane Campion on the set of The Power of the Dog. Photo: Kirsty Griffin/Netflix A year after Chloé Zhao took home this trophy, Oscar could make it two female directors in a row. The Power of the Dog is Jane Campion at the peak of her directorial powers, and a reminder of how ridiculous it is that a filmmaker of her stature had to wait 12 years between movies.
Best Actor Will Smith in King Richard. Photo: Warner Bros. Once King Richard premiered at Telluride, mountain scuttlebutt pegged Will Smith as the man to beat in this year’s Best Actor race. As Richard Williams, the iconoclastic father of Venus and Serena, he turns in a big, accessible performance in the kind of movie where every scene feels like an awards reel.
Over the horizon, we’ve got Bradley Cooper as a fake psychic in Nightmare Alley, Javier Bardem as Desi Arnez in Being the Ricardos, Leonardo DiCaprio as a nerdy scientist in Don’t Look Up, and Tom Hanks in the unofficial Chappie remake Finch. Perhaps Adam Driver again as one of the titular Guccis in House of Gucci, though I’ve heard he takes a slight back seat to his co-stars there.
What about real-life people? Besides Stewart and Chastain, there’s also Jennifer Hudson in Respect, Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos, and technically Lady Gaga in House of Gucci, though in that case the entire cast looks to be playing less “real people” and more “anthropomorphic mozzarella sticks.”
Elsewhere we’ve got a bunch of ensemble players. Richard Jenkins is one of the standouts of The Humans, playing a suburban dad traumatized by New York City. Corey Hawkins is getting some attention as Joel Coen’s Macduff, though it’s Alex Hassell’s beefed-up Ross who seems to have caught critics’ eyes.
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