“In the event that...Vladimir Putin loses office, the governance system will be in danger of collapse,” writes political scientist SabFis3. “Regional secessionism, violence and even civil war cannot be ruled out”
know how Russia’s war against Ukraine is going to end. Ukraine may inflict more damage on Russia’s army and ultimately force Moscow to accept it as an independent state. Or the Russian offensive may progress to a point where Moscow can impose humiliating ceasefire conditions upon Kyiv. Both sides may end up in a fragile military stalemate.
Such change has seemed out of the question for the 22 years of Mr Putin’s rule. But now Russia is under enormous pressure from the accumulated effects of Western sanctions and the war itself. The economy faces the risk of a deep recession. The standard of living, which has been declining for a decade, is set to deteriorate drastically. Profits from resource exports, the informal redistribution of which has kept the Russian elite on board, will shrink dramatically too.
There is, first of all, the hierarchy of power. It is the backbone of the entire system, and ties all political and economic institutions, structures and actors to the person of the president. Its origins lie in the early 2000s, but in the last decade it has become more rigid and more authoritarian. In the past two years Russia has moved from a hybrid autocracy with participatory niches to a hard autocracy applying broad repression against any sign of political discontent.
The war against Ukraine has turned authoritarian Russia into a dictatorship. This transition has exacerbated the atomisation of Russian society even further. And the kind of horizontal structures required for political alternatives to emerge, such as opposition parties or civic groups, no longer exist. The capacity for self-organisation has hit rock bottom.
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