Stocks Analysis by Lance Roberts covering: S&P 500, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, SPDR® S&P 500, S&P 500 Futures. Read Lance Roberts's latest article on Investing.com
suggesting the 2022 correction was complete. Let’s review what I wrote, and then we will expand on why we believe the “pain trade” is higher over the next few weeks.
For example, the current sloppy trading environment over the last few months corresponds to the average pre-election year performance.As we head into year-end, the historical probabilities of a year-end advance, particularly following summer weakness, outweigh bearish possibilities. “Notably, with the rather large short position in equities built up over the last few months, a reversal of the summer weakness will lead to short-covering by portfolio managers, adding further impetus to the advance.”With sentiment negative, it becomes increasingly painful to fight the tape as the market rises. The “pain trade” reverses positioning as the market improves, pushing prices higher.
Over the next few months, rallies will likely be contained at the previous resistance of the 50- and 100-DMA. However, a break above those resistance levels would suggest a move higher into year-end.Understand my view. There is undoubtedly a risk that the market fails to hold its support levels. Such would suggest a further decline before the next rally. As is always the case, we must manage our risks accordingly.
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