S&P 500 Index could fall 15-20% if the economy enters a full-blown recession – UBS SP500 Banks Equities
Fed
“Our view on full-year 2023 earnings remains unchanged. Our 2023 EPS estimate is USD215, which is a 4% decline from 2022. We believe the full-year bottom-up consensus EPS estimates look at least 6 percent too high.” “Even if the bottom-up EPS estimate of USD230 proves correct, we struggle to justify paying a P/E of more than 18x. That suggests upside potential to 4,140 for S&P 500, only 4% higher than current levels. At the same time, downside risks remain elevated, andInformation on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties.
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