From ReutersGraphics: The crisis in Ukraine tests Europe’s dependence on Russian gas against Russia’s dependence on European energy customers via Da_Pacific, Samuel Granados and OvaskaOvaska
As the crisis between Russia and the West deepens on the borders of Ukraine, Europe and Russia’s long interdependence on one another for energy has become a critical bargaining piece on both sides.
At the end of January, S&P Global Platts Analytics estimated that a complete suspension of Russian gas flows into Europe was a “highly unlikely scenario”, but even small disruptions against the backdrop of a post-pandemic global gas reserve shortage and steeply rising prices could cause deep pain for European energy markets and downstream consumers.
With its abundant gas reserves, the proximity of its oilfields and an extensive existing pipeline network, Russia dominates the EU’s gas market at about 38% of total supply. Norway, the bloc’s next largest source of natural gas, accounts for half that, just 19% of the market. But if shutting off the gas entirely isn’t as likely, European politicians and energy markets experts have accused Russia of deliberately holding back on supply across some pipeline networks to put pressure on Germany and the European Union to finalise the Nord Stream 2 project.
That volatility in Europe spread across global markets after the U.S. warned last week that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could come “any day”. Russia has agreed a 30-year contract to supply gas to China via a new pipeline and will settle the new gas sales in euros, bolstering an energy alliance with Beijing amid Moscow's strained ties with the West over Ukraine and other issues.
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