Russia is facing “economic oblivion” in the long-term as a result of international sanctions and the flight of businesses, several economists have said.
U.S. Fears Russia Is Using a ‘Nuclear Shield' in Ukraine; Zelenskyy Calls Grain Shipment a ‘Positive Signal'
"Governmental arrears may be contributing to broader shortages. Imports of consumer goods are increasing, but less so intermediate/investment goods." "It affects overall productivity, reducing innovation and affects overall confidence in the economy, reducing investment and savings." "Russia's strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a 'pivot to Asia' with non-fungible exports such as piped gas," the Yale economists said.
"As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia's economic base.
"Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses, which has already sent his government budget into deficit for the first time in years and drained his foreign reserves even with high energy prices – and Kremlin finances are in much, much more dire straits than conventionally understood," the Yale economists said.
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