Top economist David Rosenberg says Bill Ackman's bet against Treasurys could end as badly as his Herbalife wager
against dietary supplement firm Herbalife. It became one of Ackman's biggest-ever losses as Herbalife's stock kept rising until he had to ultimately liquidate his position.
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco highlighted a sharp slowdown in house prices and asking rents in 2023, in a recent"As policymakers continue to confront elevated inflation, changes in housing markets suggest pressure from shelter inflation could ease substantially. The forecasts we present in this Economic Letter indicate that future shelter inflation may decline considerably, reflecting the signals of slowing in recent rental markets," the bank said.
With signs of inflation cooling, it could mean the Fed's rate hiking cycle could soon come to an end. The Federal Reserve has aggressively steepened interest rates over the past year in a bid to cool 40-year high inflation, from near-zero levels to upwards of 5%. The tight policy has worked to slow down the pace of consumer price pressures, with the latest CPI report showing inflation rose by 3.2%, below economists' forecasts. as a buffer against the impact of higher interest rates on stocks. Unlike Rosenberg, the billionaire investor said high defense costs, and greater bargaining power of workers could stoke inflation.
Bond prices tend to have an inverse relationship to interest rates. When interest rates go up, bonds usually fall. Traders may bet against bonds if they think their prices will drop.
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Bill Ackman Is Betting Against Long-Term Treasury BondsHedge fund manager Bill Ackman says he's short the 30-year Treasury bond, in a bet that long-term inflation will settle closer to 3% than the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. The Pershing Square founder laid out the case for the trade on X (formerly Twitter). He wrote Wednesday that he's 'surprised
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David Rosenberg: Bear market and recession calls remain in place despite the rallyDavid Rosenberg: Bear market and recession calls remain in place despite the rally — via financialpost
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Rosenberg water bills could rise $10 monthly to create reservoir to keep water flowingThe agency where Rosenberg gets nearly half of its water supply wants to build a massive reservoir to store water. If it's not built, residents could be without water for six months in severe weather cases.
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Expect a federal indictment of Trump soon: Rosenberg; But who else might prosecutors name?Rachel Maddow points out that 'a person cannot conspire alone,' and so if Donald Trump is indicted on a conspiracy charge as many observers expect, what does that mean for what the people in Donald Trump's orbit are likely to face? Chuck Rosenberg, former U.S. attorney joins to discuss.
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