The outcome of her race could reveal whether her win in June was a fluke, or a sign that the Republican Party's efforts to win over Latino voters are working.
And Democrats may turn out in higher numbers in the midterm elections than they did over the summer, says Natasha Altema McNeely, an associate professor of political science at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley. Low Democratic voter turnout during the special election contributed to Flores’s historical win: only 7.51% of registered voters in the district voted during the special election.
“They don’t represent who we are,” she continued. “We’re pro-God, pro-family, all about hard work. That is just who we are in South Texas. The Democrat party just doesn’t represent those values. They have walked away from the Hispanic community.”The new district lines in South Texas had made many skeptical that Flores can prevail again. But Republicans and Democrats alike think the national Democratic Party would need to spend more resources in the area to be sure to oust her.
And Gonzalez has had to fight. He has spent more than $2.2 million as of June 30, more than double what was spent to finance his 2020 campaign against another up-and-coming Republican Latina, Monica De La Cruz. Flores has spent more than $1.7 million as of Sept. 1, largely from out of state donations—something Gonzalez says is an indicator for how much the Republican Party wants to retain the seat.
Even if Flores loses next month, Republicans hope her campaign will still be a step in the right direction for the party. “No serious observer of the Latino vote is saying the Republicans are going to win over 50% of the vote,” Madrid says. “That’s not what’s happening. But the margins are closing.”
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